Move Over Nascar Dads. This Election the Hottest Swing Voter Could Be Minority Moms. By: Keli Goff

09Aug07

After countless elections catering to soccer moms, Nascar Dads and every other cleverly-named voter demographic that was essentially code for white swing voters, new census data confirms that non-whites will play an increasingly significant role in elections.

As reported in the New York Times, “nonwhites now make up a majority in almost one-third of the most-populous counties in the country and in nearly one in 10 of all 3,100 counties.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/09/us/09census.html

While the Black population in places like New York, as well as New Orleans declined (no surprise given Hurricane Katrina), it increased significantly in other locations, most notably the cities of Dallas and Houston which welcomed a number of Katrina survivors. However Miami also saw one of the biggest numerical gains in its black population.

Additionally the Hispanic population in major cities such as Los Angeles, Dallas and New York also experienced significant increases, in the case of Los Angeles by more than half a million. These numbers could essentially re-write the rules for what it means to have an effective and winning campaign strategy.

Traditionally the model in high profile campaigns (at least those by non-minority candidates) has been to treat minority voters as an afterthought. The strategy has often been driven by a largely unspoken but longstanding belief that “Their vote may be important, but probably not as important as John and Jane Doe,” a middle class couple with an SUV, bills to pay, who are worried about taxes, paying for college, national security—and who happen to be white.

This thinking has been evident on the campaign trail in too many elections to count, notably in 2004 when Democratic nominee John Kerry received extensive criticism for essentially running a so-called “drive-by” campaign with black voters. (As in rolling up to some black churches a few weeks before the election to remind them to vote for him, but not necessarily investing the same time and energy in convincing them to do so the way he probably did with John and Jane Doe not to mention Grandma Doe since seniors are such a lucrative demographic at the polls.)

Tip O’Neill once famously said, “All politics is local.” While an increase of these minority-turned majority populations will undoubtedly transform the local politics of these cities we also know that such changes could have a profound impact on the rest of us. After all, with Florida remaining a notorious swing state, in which only a few hundred votes once decided an entire presidential election, a change in the racial makeup of its population by more than 100,000 people could easily shake things up for all of us. It is also worth mentioning that Hispanic voters are not a shoo-in for Democrats, playing crucial roles in the election of Republicans such as Senator Mel Martinez who is now Chairman of the Republican National Committee.

With this in mind, hopefully all of the presidential candidates will finally get wise to the fact that today, the Jane and John Doe that will decide whether or not they get elected are just as likely to be brown or black, as they are to be white and their campaigns need to adapt accordingly.

www.keligoff.com

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